Conmebol Sudamericana . Last 16
Global 2-2
Nacional vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.8%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.5%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.8%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
25%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25%
23.3%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul. 2021 |
TOR
3 - 0
NAC
38%
27%
35%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2021 |
NAC
2 - 0
PEÑ
54%
25%
22%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | +1 |
| 27 Jun. 2021 |
REN
1 - 1
NAC
18%
26%
56%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2021 |
NAC
3 - 0
MWA
64%
21%
15%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2021 |
BOS
1 - 1
NAC
20%
26%
54%
|
79 | 62 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul. 2021 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
CSC
66%
20%
14%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2021 |
NAC
2 - 0
PEÑ
54%
25%
22%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | -1 |
| 26 Jun. 2021 |
PEÑ
1 - 1
CSY
74%
17%
9%
|
79 | 64 | 15 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2021 |
TOR
0 - 1
PEÑ
42%
27%
31%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | +1 |
| 20 Jun. 2021 |
PEÑ
4 - 0
DEP
71%
19%
11%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | 0 |