Série D Brazil Eliminatorias. Quarter-finals
Global 5-3
Mirassol vs Aparecidense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.6%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.3%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.7%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.1%
17.3%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.7%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mirassol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Dec. 2020 |
BRA
2 - 1
MIR
34%
28%
38%
|
58 | 50 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2020 |
MIR
4 - 0
BRA
57%
25%
19%
|
58 | 53 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 2020 |
MIR
1 - 0
CAX
56%
25%
19%
|
58 | 54 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 2020 |
CAX
1 - 0
MIR
33%
29%
38%
|
60 | 54 | 6 | -2 |
| 28 Nov. 2020 |
BAN
0 - 0
MIR
19%
27%
53%
|
60 | 45 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Aparecidense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Dec. 2020 |
APA
1 - 2
SLU
48%
26%
26%
|
49 | 48 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2020 |
SLU
0 - 4
APA
45%
27%
28%
|
48 | 51 | 3 | +1 |
| 13 Dec. 2020 |
APA
4 - 0
TFC
66%
20%
15%
|
48 | 41 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2020 |
TFC
1 - 1
APA
25%
24%
52%
|
50 | 41 | 9 | -2 |
| 28 Nov. 2020 |
LTD
2 - 6
APA
24%
24%
51%
|
49 | 40 | 9 | +1 |