Champions League . Semi-finals
Global 5-3
Milan vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.3%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.7%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.1%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.5%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.9%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.7%
38%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
0-1
9%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.5%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.5%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr. 2007 |
TOR
0 - 1
ACM
13%
24%
63%
|
93 | 75 | 18 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2007 |
MUD
3 - 2
ACM
60%
23%
18%
|
93 | 95 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2007 |
ACM
3 - 1
CAG
76%
16%
8%
|
93 | 78 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2007 |
ASC
2 - 5
ACM
15%
25%
61%
|
93 | 70 | 23 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2007 |
MES
1 - 3
ACM
16%
25%
59%
|
92 | 73 | 19 | +1 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr. 2007 |
EVE
2 - 4
MUD
17%
23%
60%
|
95 | 86 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2007 |
MUD
3 - 2
ACM
60%
23%
18%
|
95 | 93 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2007 |
MUD
1 - 1
MID
78%
15%
6%
|
95 | 84 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2007 |
MUD
2 - 0
SHE
82%
13%
5%
|
95 | 76 | 19 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2007 |
WAT
1 - 4
MUD
11%
21%
68%
|
95 | 77 | 18 | 0 |