ACR Messina vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.5%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.4%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.8%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.8%
1-0
14.5%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
24.5%
17.9%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+23%
+35%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ACR Messina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May. 1961 |
MES
1 - 1
PAR
56%
25%
19%
|
64 | 57 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 May. 1961 |
ACP
0 - 0
MES
48%
27%
25%
|
64 | 59 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1961 |
REG
1 - 3
MES
65%
20%
15%
|
63 | 64 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 May. 1961 |
MES
3 - 1
BRE
49%
27%
24%
|
62 | 62 | 0 | +1 |
| 07 May. 1961 |
PRO
1 - 0
MES
58%
23%
19%
|
63 | 62 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May. 1961 |
TRI
2 - 0
NOV
55%
25%
19%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 May. 1961 |
NOV
1 - 0
PRO
46%
26%
28%
|
56 | 63 | 7 | +1 |
| 14 May. 1961 |
MAN
1 - 0
NOV
68%
19%
13%
|
57 | 67 | 10 | -1 |
| 11 May. 1961 |
NOV
0 - 1
SSS
54%
25%
22%
|
57 | 59 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1961 |
NOV
0 - 2
VNZ
49%
27%
24%
|
58 | 66 | 8 | -1 |