Marino vs Ibarra analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.5%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.1%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.9%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
21.8%
19.7%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.1%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-16%
+35%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
34
8º
14º
13º
25
5º
16º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
58 | 59 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
52 | 55 |
2º
|
74.5% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 54 |
3º
|
74.5% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 50 |
4º
|
67.5% | |
|
5º
|
47 | 48 |
5º
|
45.5% | |
|
6º
|
46 | 47 |
6º
|
8% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 47 |
7º
|
30% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 44 |
8º
|
85.5% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 39 |
9º
|
54% | |
|
10º
|
37 | 38 |
10º
|
31.5% | |
|
11º
|
36 | 37 |
11º
|
37.5% | |
|
12º
|
35 | 36 |
12º
|
62% | |
|
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
82.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
25 | 26 |
14º
|
70.5% | |
|
15º
|
25 | 25 |
15º
|
70.5% | |
|
16º
|
16 | 16 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Marino
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
CSU
1 - 0
MAR
40%
25%
35%
|
27 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
MAR
2 - 0
UDG
57%
23%
21%
|
26 | 22 | 4 | +1 |
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
ARU
2 - 1
MAR
43%
24%
33%
|
27 | 26 | 1 | -1 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
MAR
0 - 2
LPA
34%
25%
41%
|
28 | 33 | 5 | -1 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
VSB
2 - 0
MAR
42%
25%
34%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | -2 |
Matches
Ibarra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar. 2023 |
UDI
1 - 1
CDT
17%
23%
60%
|
19 | 35 | 16 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
UDS
4 - 1
UDI
75%
16%
9%
|
19 | 35 | 16 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
UDI
1 - 3
YAI
39%
26%
36%
|
20 | 22 | 2 | -1 |
| 18 Feb. 2023 |
EST
0 - 5
UDI
40%
24%
36%
|
19 | 18 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
UDI
0 - 0
TAM
16%
21%
63%
|
18 | 30 | 12 | +1 |