Manchester City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.2%
Win probability
1.98
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.8%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.7%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
10%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.2%
17.6%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.7%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1913 |
BBU
2 - 2
MAC
68%
19%
13%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1913 |
MAC
2 - 2
SHW
46%
25%
30%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1913 |
EVE
0 - 0
MAC
57%
23%
20%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1913 |
MAC
2 - 1
WBA
62%
22%
17%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1913 |
MAC
3 - 0
MID
64%
19%
17%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1913 |
DER
4 - 0
BRA
60%
22%
18%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1913 |
OLD
2 - 2
DER
53%
25%
22%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1913 |
ARS
1 - 2
DER
38%
26%
36%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1913 |
DER
3 - 1
CHL
67%
19%
15%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1913 |
DER
1 - 4
SHW
47%
24%
29%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |