Manchester City vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
72.9%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.8%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.3%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.9%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.2%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.6%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.3%
15.7%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
7%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.6%
11.4%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
7.7%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
MAC
3 - 0
WOL
89%
8%
3%
|
96 | 85 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2023 |
MAC
4 - 2
TOT
77%
14%
9%
|
96 | 90 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
MUD
2 - 1
MAC
22%
24%
55%
|
96 | 92 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2023 |
SOU
2 - 0
MAC
6%
15%
80%
|
97 | 85 | 12 | -1 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
MAC
4 - 0
CHL
75%
15%
10%
|
97 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
ARS
3 - 2
MUD
46%
24%
30%
|
92 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
TOT
0 - 2
ARS
36%
25%
39%
|
92 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 2023 |
OXF
0 - 3
ARS
5%
14%
80%
|
92 | 67 | 25 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2023 |
ARS
0 - 0
NEW
69%
19%
13%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2022 |
BHA
2 - 4
ARS
21%
24%
55%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |