FC Lugano vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.9%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.7%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.7%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.3%
24%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24%
51.1%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.4%
0-2
8.7%
1-3
5.5%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15.6%
0-3
4.9%
1-4
2.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.7%
0-4
2.1%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
57
2º
10º
3º
47
3º
7º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 74 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 58 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
50 | 50 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
47 | 47 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
45 | 45 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
44 | 44 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
32 | 32 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 31 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase (2nd r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
100% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
LUG
1 - 0
SER
39%
26%
35%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
BRE
0 - 4
LUG
13%
18%
69%
|
75 | 56 | 19 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
YOB
3 - 0
LUG
61%
20%
19%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | -1 |
| 03 Sep. 2022 |
ZUR
1 - 2
LUG
53%
23%
24%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 2022 |
LUG
2 - 3
STG
29%
24%
47%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 2022 |
BAS
0 - 2
SBR
63%
20%
17%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
BAS
3 - 2
STG
50%
22%
28%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
FCA
1 - 3
BAS
22%
23%
55%
|
83 | 66 | 17 | +1 |
| 15 Sep. 2022 |
ZAL
0 - 1
BAS
29%
24%
47%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
BAS
5 - 1
GCZ
67%
20%
13%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |