Conmebol Sudamericana Semi-finals
Global 4-4
Independiente vs Liga de Quito analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.4%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
4%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.6%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
26.2%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.2%
28.4%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.4%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.7%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 2010 |
COL
1 - 1
IND
46%
27%
28%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2010 |
LIG
3 - 2
IND
59%
21%
19%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
| 14 Nov. 2010 |
IND
1 - 1
OLI
55%
25%
20%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2010 |
IND
0 - 0
TOL
46%
25%
29%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 2010 |
SLO
1 - 1
IND
50%
25%
25%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Liga de Quito
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Nov. 2010 |
LIG
3 - 1
NAC
69%
19%
12%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2010 |
LIG
1 - 1
QUI
64%
21%
15%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2010 |
LIG
3 - 2
IND
59%
21%
19%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2010 |
BSC
1 - 1
LIG
31%
29%
41%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2010 |
LIG
1 - 0
NOB
58%
23%
19%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |