Ibarra vs Estrella analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.1%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.1%
2-0
4%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
8.2%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
16.5%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
47.5%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
0-1
8.1%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.9%
0-2
7.1%
1-3
5.5%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
14.4%
0-3
4.1%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
7.2%
0-4
1.8%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+45%
+110%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
5º
16º
14º
16
10º
16º
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
16º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
58 | 59 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
52 | 55 |
2º
|
74.5% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 54 |
3º
|
74.5% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 50 |
4º
|
67.5% | |
|
5º
|
47 | 48 |
5º
|
45.5% | |
|
6º
|
46 | 47 |
6º
|
8% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 47 |
7º
|
30% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 44 |
8º
|
85.5% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 39 |
9º
|
54% | |
|
10º
|
37 | 38 |
10º
|
31.5% | |
|
11º
|
36 | 37 |
11º
|
37.5% | |
|
12º
|
35 | 36 |
12º
|
62% | |
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
82.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
25 | 26 |
14º
|
70.5% | |
|
15º
|
25 | 25 |
15º
|
70.5% | |
|
|
16º
|
16 | 16 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ibarra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
TAM
3 - 0
UDI
73%
17%
10%
|
19 | 32 | 13 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
UDI
1 - 2
PAN
13%
19%
68%
|
19 | 35 | 16 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
CSU
3 - 0
UDI
53%
23%
24%
|
20 | 24 | 4 | -1 |
| 10 Sep. 2022 |
UDI
1 - 1
UDG
24%
24%
52%
|
20 | 28 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2022 |
UDI
2 - 0
CDT
26%
22%
53%
|
18 | 23 | 5 | +2 |
Matches
Estrella
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct. 2022 |
EST
1 - 2
ARU
31%
24%
45%
|
22 | 27 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
EST
2 - 1
CSU
36%
25%
39%
|
21 | 26 | 5 | +1 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
UDG
0 - 0
EST
57%
22%
22%
|
21 | 27 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
LPA
3 - 0
EST
75%
15%
10%
|
22 | 35 | 13 | -1 |
| 09 Sep. 2022 |
EST
0 - 0
VSB
32%
24%
44%
|
21 | 26 | 5 | +1 |