Heracles vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.6%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.8%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.8%
27.6%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.8%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2022 |
SPA
1 - 0
HER
47%
24%
29%
|
68 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2022 |
PRE
1 - 2
HER
25%
24%
51%
|
68 | 58 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2022 |
VER
3 - 1
HER
26%
23%
51%
|
68 | 57 | 11 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2022 |
HER
1 - 3
SPA
46%
27%
28%
|
69 | 68 | 1 | -1 |
| 11 May. 2022 |
RKC
2 - 0
HER
34%
27%
39%
|
69 | 64 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul. 2022 |
EXC
3 - 2
FCD
78%
13%
8%
|
63 | 50 | 13 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2022 |
ALM
2 - 0
EXC
27%
22%
51%
|
64 | 58 | 6 | -1 |
| 09 Jul. 2022 |
NAC
1 - 1
EXC
47%
24%
29%
|
64 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2022 |
EXC
2 - 2
NAC
36%
25%
40%
|
63 | 70 | 7 | +1 |
| 29 Apr. 2022 |
VVV
2 - 2
EXC
26%
24%
50%
|
63 | 56 | 7 | 0 |