Copa do Brasil . Quarter-finals
Global 5-3
Fortaleza EC vs São Paulo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.2%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
2%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3%
2-0
5.2%
3-1
2.8%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.7%
1-0
9%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.5%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
42.4%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
22.3%
0-2
7.6%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.6%
0-3
3.5%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fortaleza EC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2021 |
FOR
0 - 2
ATM
27%
26%
47%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
BAH
4 - 2
FOR
36%
27%
37%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2021 |
FOR
0 - 0
CUI
71%
20%
9%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2021 |
SAO
2 - 2
FOR
59%
22%
19%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2021 |
JUV
1 - 1
FOR
22%
27%
51%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 2021 |
FLU
2 - 1
SAO
35%
26%
39%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2021 |
JUV
1 - 1
SAO
16%
24%
60%
|
86 | 70 | 16 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2021 |
SAO
2 - 2
FOR
59%
22%
19%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2021 |
SPO
0 - 1
SAO
15%
24%
62%
|
86 | 70 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2021 |
PAL
3 - 0
SAO
58%
22%
20%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |