Copa do Brasil 1/16
Global 2-2
Fortaleza EC vs Retro FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.6%
Win probability
2.38
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4%
4-0
6.6%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.8%
3-0
11.2%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
15.9%
2-0
14.1%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.4%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
15.6%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
15.6%
7.9%
Win probability
0.62
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
2.3%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fortaleza EC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May. 2025 |
VAS
3 - 0
FOR
45%
26%
29%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2025 |
FOR
0 - 0
BUC
66%
20%
14%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2025 |
FOR
5 - 0
JUV
44%
26%
30%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2025 |
FOR
4 - 0
COL
67%
20%
14%
|
87 | 74 | 13 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2025 |
SAO
0 - 0
FOR
44%
26%
30%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Retro FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May. 2025 |
RFC
1 - 0
ITA
59%
25%
16%
|
68 | 60 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2025 |
CAX
2 - 1
RFC
52%
26%
22%
|
68 | 70 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2025 |
FLO
1 - 0
RFC
27%
28%
46%
|
69 | 58 | 11 | -1 |
| 30 Apr. 2025 |
RFC
1 - 1
FOR
15%
24%
62%
|
68 | 87 | 19 | +1 |
| 27 Apr. 2025 |
RFC
2 - 1
FFL
43%
28%
29%
|
68 | 68 | 0 | 0 |