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Brazilian Serie A. Matchday 26

Fortaleza EC vs Grêmio analysis

Fortaleza EC Grêmio
66 ELO 80
33% Tilt -16%
388º General ELO ranking 65º
23º Country ELO ranking
ELO win probability
48.3%
Fortaleza EC
25.1%
Draw
26.6%
Grêmio

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.3%
Win probability
Fortaleza EC
1.57
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.5%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.8%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.7%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.1%
26.6%
Win probability
Grêmio
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.4%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Fortaleza EC
+17%
-46%
Grêmio

Basic stats

48
52
POS
22
13
SOT
10
4
COR
1
0
GF
0
1
GC
19
13
FRK
66
80
ELO
1.6
1.1
EXP
Key
POS
Ball possession
SOT
Total shots
COR
Corners
GF
Goals for
GC
Goals against
FRK
Fouls received
ELO
Team's ELO rating
EXP
Expected goals for the team

Points and table prediction

Fortaleza EC
Their league position
Grêmio
CURR.POS.
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
45
26
16º
20º
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
19º
Current table Final expectations
PK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Atl. Mineiro
56
78
51%
Flamengo
46
75
45%
Fortaleza EC
45
61
18%
Palmeiras
43
65
20%
RB Bragantino
42
64
13%
Corinthians
40
56
9%
Internacional
39
57
9%
Fluminense
36
52
8%
Cuiabá
35
45
13º
7%
Athletico Paranaense
10º
34
51
7%
Atlético GO
11º
34
47
10º
6%
América Mineiro
12º
32
45
15º
7%
Ceará
13º
31
46
12º
7%
São Paulo
14º
31
45
14º
8%
Santos FC
15º
29
44
16º
7%
Bahía
16º
28
46
11º
7%
EC Juventude
17º
28
39
18º
9%
Sport Recife
18º
27
35
19º
11%
Grêmio
19º
26
40
17º
12%
Chapecoense
20º
13
27
20º
87%
Expected probabilities
Fortaleza EC
Grêmio
Champion
3% 0%
Copa Libertadores
42% 1%
Copa Libertadores knockout stages
24% 3%
South American Liguilla
23% 28%
Mid-table
7% 24%
Relegation
1% 44%

ELO progression

Fortaleza EC
FOR
Grêmio
GRE
Chapecoense
CHA
EC Juventude
JUV
Atl. Mineiro
ATM
Ceará
CEA
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
1%
X%
2%
ELO FOR ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
10 Oct. 2021
FOR
Fortaleza EC
0 - 3
Flamengo
FLA
22%
24%
54%
1718 2809 -1091 -7
07 Oct. 2021
FLU
Fluminense
0 - 2
Fortaleza EC
FOR
57%
23%
20%
1696 2162 466 +21
02 Oct. 2021
FOR
Fortaleza EC
0 - 3
Atlético GO
ATL
53%
25%
22%
1717 1571 146 -21
26 Sep. 2021
SPO
Sport Recife
0 - 1
Fortaleza EC
FOR
45%
27%
28%
1707 1620 -87 +10
19 Sep. 2021
SCI
Internacional
1 - 0
Fortaleza EC
FOR
57%
23%
20%
1713 2148 435 -6

Matches

Grêmio
Grêmio
1%
X%
2%
ELO GRE ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
10 Oct. 2021
SAN
Santos FC
1 - 0
Grêmio
GRE
45%
27%
27%
2406 2234 -172 -10
07 Oct. 2021
GRE
Grêmio
2 - 2
Cuiabá
CUI
79%
14%
7%
2413 1261 1152 -7
04 Oct. 2021
GRE
Grêmio
1 - 2
Sport Recife
SPO
71%
17%
11%
2429 1610 819 -16
26 Sep. 2021
ATP
Athletico Paranaense
4 - 2
Grêmio
GRE
45%
27%
27%
2444 2274 -170 -15
20 Sep. 2021
FLA
Flamengo
0 - 1
Grêmio
GRE
57%
23%
20%
2430 2810 380 +14