NPSL - USA Midwest round 2

Flower City Union vs Erie Commodores analysis

Flower City Union Erie Commodores
17 ELO 25
-1.4% Tilt -6.8%
12874º General ELO ranking 10609º
246º Country ELO ranking 202º
ELO win probability
22.8%
Flower City Union
20%
Draw
57.2%
Erie Commodores

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
22.8%
Win probability
Flower City Union
1.37
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.4%
2-0
2.5%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
6.4%
1-0
3.7%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
13.2%
20%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
20%
57.2%
Win probability
Erie Commodores
2.24
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
4.8%
3-4
1.2%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
21.5%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
2.7%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
17%
0-3
5.1%
1-4
3.9%
2-5
1.2%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
10.4%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0.1%
-4
5.1%
0-5
1.3%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
2.1%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Flower City Union
+321%
-7%
Erie Commodores

Points and table prediction

Flower City Union
Their league position
Erie Commodores
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
13º
14º
12
13º
17º
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
15º
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Dakota Fusion
30
30
100%
Akron City FC
24
24
100%
Steel City
24
24
100%
Gio's Lions
20
23
100%
Duluth
22
22
100%
Kansas City Sol
21
21
100%
Michigan Rangers
20
20
49%
Des Moines United
20
20
49%
Minnesota TwinStars
20
20
49%
Siouxland United
10º
18
18
10º
100%
MIlwaukee Torrent
11º
17
17
11º
51%
Joy St. Louis Park
12º
17
17
12º
51%
Cleveland SC
13º
16
16
13º
51%
Flower City Union
14º
16
16
14º
51%
Oklahoma City 1889
17º
10
13
15º
51%
Erie Commodores
15º
12
12
16º
100%
Sunflower State FC
16º
12
12
17º
51%
Sioux Falls Thunder
19º
9
9
18º
51%
St Louis Club Atletico
18º
9
9
19º
51%
Arkansas Wolves
20º
8
8
20º
51%
Ehtar
21º
6
6
21º
100%
Wisconsin Conquerors
22º
2
2
22º
100%
Demize NPSL
23º
1
1
23º
0%
Minnesota Blizzard
24º
1
1
24º
0%
Niagara 1812
26º
1
1
25º
0%
SI Guardians
25º
1
1
26º
0%
Expected probabilities
Flower City Union
Erie Commodores
Final Series
0% 0%
Mid-table
100% 100%

ELO progression

Flower City Union
Erie Commodores
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Flower City Union
Flower City Union
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
28 Jun. 2024
FCU
Flower City Union
6 - 0
Niagara 1812
NIA
84%
11%
6%
17 6 11 0
16 Jun. 2024
ACF
Akron City FC
6 - 2
Flower City Union
FCU
71%
16%
13%
17 24 7 0
11 Nov. 2023
MSF
Michigan Stars
0 - 1
Flower City Union
FCU
68%
18%
13%
16 27 11 +1
05 Nov. 2023
CHA
Chattanooga
0 - 0
Flower City Union
FCU
75%
16%
9%
16 34 18 0
30 Oct. 2023
LAF
LA Force
2 - 4
Flower City Union
FCU
67%
19%
14%
15 25 10 +1

Matches

Erie Commodores
Erie Commodores
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
27 Jun. 2024
CLE
Cleveland SC
3 - 2
Erie Commodores
ECO
74%
14%
12%
26 37 11 0
24 Jun. 2024
STC
Steel City
2 - 2
Erie Commodores
ECO
56%
20%
24%
26 31 5 0
22 Jun. 2024
ECO
Erie Commodores
7 - 1
SI Guardians
SIG
81%
12%
6%
25 6 19 +1
15 Jun. 2024
ECO
Erie Commodores
5 - 0
Niagara 1812
NIA
81%
13%
6%
25 7 18 0
09 Jul. 2023
ECO
Erie Commodores
0 - 0
Michigan Rangers
MCR
43%
23%
35%
25 25 0 0