Ferroviário vs 4 de Julho analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.7%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.6%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.9%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.8%
17.5%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferroviário
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 2018 |
COR
1 - 1
FER
25%
25%
50%
|
45 | 35 | 10 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2018 |
FER
2 - 2
ATM
8%
17%
75%
|
45 | 83 | 38 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2018 |
ATM
4 - 0
FER
89%
9%
2%
|
45 | 83 | 38 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 2018 |
ABC
3 - 1
FER
68%
20%
12%
|
46 | 58 | 12 | -1 |
| 23 Mar. 2018 |
FOR
2 - 1
FER
68%
20%
12%
|
46 | 58 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
4 de Julho
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 2018 |
4DE
1 - 0
INT
44%
27%
29%
|
39 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2018 |
ALT
3 - 1
4DE
54%
22%
24%
|
41 | 46 | 5 | -2 |
| 05 Apr. 2018 |
4DE
3 - 1
ALT
21%
23%
57%
|
37 | 48 | 11 | +4 |
| 01 Apr. 2018 |
4DE
1 - 1
FLA
60%
22%
18%
|
38 | 28 | 10 | -1 |
| 18 Mar. 2018 |
4DE
1 - 1
PIA
49%
24%
27%
|
38 | 34 | 4 | 0 |