Ferroviária vs Comercial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.7%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.4%
3-0
7%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.8%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.2%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.4%
16.9%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+47%
-37%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferroviária
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan. 2011 |
FER
1 - 0
RIO
46%
25%
29%
|
53 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2011 |
MAR
1 - 2
FER
69%
18%
13%
|
52 | 62 | 10 | +1 |
| 19 Jan. 2011 |
AME
1 - 1
FER
49%
23%
28%
|
52 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2011 |
FER
0 - 2
UNI
39%
25%
36%
|
53 | 56 | 3 | -1 |
| 23 May. 2010 |
RBB
3 - 2
FER
51%
23%
26%
|
54 | 56 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan. 2011 |
COM
3 - 2
RIO
41%
25%
34%
|
46 | 48 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2011 |
CAT
3 - 0
COM
59%
22%
19%
|
47 | 50 | 3 | -1 |
| 19 Jan. 2011 |
MON
1 - 1
COM
69%
18%
13%
|
46 | 55 | 9 | +1 |
| 16 Jan. 2011 |
COM
0 - 0
RIO
32%
25%
43%
|
46 | 53 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2009 |
SAO
1 - 1
COM
63%
21%
16%
|
46 | 55 | 9 | 0 |