Porto vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.5%
Win probability
2.63
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.1%
5-0
3.7%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
5%
4-0
7.1%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.2%
3-0
10.9%
4-1
5%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.8%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.2%
13.9%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
6.6%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
13.9%
7.6%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
2.3%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.6%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
+18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Porto
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2003 |
BOA
0 - 1
FCP
24%
27%
50%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2003 |
MAR
2 - 3
FCP
40%
27%
34%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2003 |
BEL
1 - 4
FCP
22%
25%
52%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2003 |
FCP
4 - 1
ACA
79%
14%
7%
|
88 | 67 | 21 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2003 |
FCP
1 - 3
RMA
30%
24%
46%
|
88 | 93 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2003 |
NAC
4 - 0
BEL
40%
26%
35%
|
67 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2003 |
ACA
0 - 1
NAC
51%
24%
25%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | +1 |
| 05 Oct. 2003 |
NAC
4 - 2
VIT
46%
26%
28%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
SLB
1 - 0
NAC
77%
16%
8%
|
65 | 83 | 18 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2003 |
NAC
0 - 2
UDL
37%
27%
36%
|
66 | 75 | 9 | -1 |