Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.3%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.1%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.2%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
31.8%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.8%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-10%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
57
2º
7º
4º
49
4º
9º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
66 | 66 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 61 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 60 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
57 | 57 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
49 | 49 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
37 | 37 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 24 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 2022 |
YVE
2 - 2
FCA
23%
22%
54%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2022 |
FCL
6 - 0
FCA
58%
21%
21%
|
66 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
FCA
1 - 3
BAS
22%
23%
55%
|
66 | 83 | 17 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2022 |
SCH
0 - 2
FCA
32%
24%
44%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | +1 |
| 03 Sep. 2022 |
FCA
2 - 1
WIL
58%
22%
21%
|
65 | 58 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 2022 |
THU
2 - 1
NEX
68%
20%
13%
|
65 | 52 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2022 |
NEX
1 - 2
THU
17%
19%
65%
|
64 | 52 | 12 | +1 |
| 10 Sep. 2022 |
STA
2 - 2
THU
27%
25%
49%
|
64 | 59 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2022 |
THU
2 - 0
LAU
35%
26%
38%
|
63 | 67 | 4 | +1 |
| 26 Aug. 2022 |
WIL
1 - 1
THU
28%
24%
48%
|
63 | 58 | 5 | 0 |