Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.8%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.3%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.4%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
20.5%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.3%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.2%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 2003 |
WIL
1 - 0
FCA
44%
25%
31%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2003 |
FCA
3 - 3
ZUR
49%
25%
25%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2003 |
NEX
0 - 1
FCA
55%
23%
22%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2003 |
FCA
3 - 1
YOB
41%
25%
35%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | +1 |
| 09 Aug. 2003 |
BAS
3 - 1
FCA
75%
16%
10%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 2003 |
ZUR
4 - 0
THU
57%
23%
20%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2003 |
THU
0 - 0
NEX
36%
26%
38%
|
71 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2003 |
YOB
2 - 1
THU
61%
21%
18%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2003 |
THU
0 - 4
BAS
24%
22%
54%
|
72 | 84 | 12 | -1 |
| 09 Aug. 2003 |
STG
1 - 1
THU
59%
22%
19%
|
72 | 78 | 6 | 0 |