Aarau vs Neuchâtel Xamax analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
57%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.5%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.5%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.4%
20.6%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.2%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
43
3º
7º
6º
49
1º
7º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 2024 |
WIL
1 - 1
FCA
30%
25%
45%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2024 |
THU
1 - 0
FCA
48%
24%
28%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
FCA
5 - 2
STA
54%
23%
22%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | +1 |
| 02 Feb. 2024 |
SIO
2 - 0
FCA
48%
25%
27%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | -1 |
| 30 Jan. 2024 |
BAD
1 - 2
FCA
17%
21%
62%
|
67 | 54 | 13 | +1 |
Matches
Neuchâtel Xamax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 2024 |
NEX
4 - 0
THU
19%
22%
59%
|
60 | 73 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2024 |
STA
0 - 2
NEX
54%
23%
24%
|
59 | 62 | 3 | +1 |
| 09 Feb. 2024 |
NEX
0 - 1
BEL
43%
25%
31%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
FCV
5 - 3
NEX
50%
25%
26%
|
60 | 64 | 4 | -1 |
| 26 Jan. 2024 |
NEX
1 - 1
BAD
58%
22%
20%
|
60 | 54 | 6 | 0 |