Aarau vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
36.1%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.1%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.5%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.7%
25.4%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.4%
38.5%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.5%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
4%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.3%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.7%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-21%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb. 2012 |
FCV
3 - 2
FCA
56%
22%
22%
|
58 | 60 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2012 |
FCA
3 - 5
YOB
11%
19%
71%
|
58 | 84 | 26 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2011 |
FCA
3 - 1
KRI
52%
24%
24%
|
57 | 54 | 3 | +1 |
| 04 Dec. 2011 |
LOC
1 - 1
FCA
39%
25%
36%
|
58 | 54 | 4 | -1 |
| 21 Nov. 2011 |
FCA
2 - 2
STG
18%
23%
60%
|
58 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb. 2012 |
LUG
2 - 1
STA
56%
23%
21%
|
62 | 58 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2011 |
LUG
2 - 0
FCV
44%
24%
32%
|
60 | 60 | 0 | +2 |
| 04 Dec. 2011 |
WOH
0 - 1
LUG
35%
25%
40%
|
60 | 57 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2011 |
LUG
2 - 0
BEL
41%
25%
34%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2011 |
CHI
1 - 1
LUG
34%
26%
40%
|
60 | 58 | 2 | 0 |