Aarau vs AC Bellinzona analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.1%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.7%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.7%
20.2%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-14%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
57
2º
7º
4º
37
1º
9º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
66 | 66 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 61 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 60 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
57 | 57 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
49 | 49 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
|
9º
|
37 | 37 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 24 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 2022 |
FCV
4 - 0
FCA
30%
24%
46%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2022 |
FCA
2 - 2
THU
44%
24%
32%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2022 |
YVE
2 - 2
FCA
23%
22%
54%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2022 |
FCL
6 - 0
FCA
58%
21%
21%
|
66 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
FCA
1 - 3
BAS
22%
23%
55%
|
66 | 83 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
AC Bellinzona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
BEL
5 - 1
WIL
30%
26%
44%
|
56 | 59 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2022 |
NEX
4 - 0
BEL
31%
24%
45%
|
57 | 52 | 5 | -1 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
BEL
1 - 3
SCH
22%
24%
54%
|
58 | 64 | 6 | -1 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
BEL
0 - 1
FCL
13%
20%
67%
|
58 | 76 | 18 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
WIL
5 - 1
BEL
36%
25%
38%
|
60 | 57 | 3 | -2 |