Ethiopia vs South Africa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
18.2%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.2%
2-0
2.7%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.5%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
4.9%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.3%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
59.1%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
0-1
11.9%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.9%
0-2
10.9%
1-3
6%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
18.2%
0-3
6.6%
1-4
2.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
9.8%
0-4
3%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
4.2%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2021 |
ETH
1 - 0
ZWE
38%
26%
37%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2021 |
GHA
1 - 0
ETH
72%
18%
10%
|
62 | 80 | 18 | -1 |
| 29 Aug. 2021 |
ETH
2 - 1
UGA
33%
27%
40%
|
61 | 70 | 9 | +1 |
| 26 Aug. 2021 |
ETH
0 - 0
SLE
48%
24%
28%
|
61 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2021 |
CIV
3 - 1
ETH
74%
17%
9%
|
61 | 84 | 23 | 0 |
Matches
South Africa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 2021 |
ZAF
1 - 0
GHA
41%
28%
31%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2021 |
ZWE
0 - 0
ZAF
21%
25%
55%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2021 |
ZAF
0 - 0
SEN
34%
27%
39%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2021 |
ZAF
3 - 0
MOZ
69%
20%
11%
|
79 | 58 | 21 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2021 |
ZAF
0 - 0
ZMB
52%
25%
23%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |