Ethiopia vs Madagascar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.6%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.4%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
33.8%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.6%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.8%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
+30%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2021 |
ETH
4 - 0
MWI
50%
25%
25%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2020 |
ETH
3 - 0
NER
42%
25%
33%
|
57 | 59 | 2 | +2 |
| 13 Nov. 2020 |
NER
1 - 0
ETH
45%
24%
31%
|
58 | 59 | 1 | -1 |
| 22 Oct. 2020 |
ETH
2 - 3
ZMB
23%
26%
52%
|
59 | 75 | 16 | -1 |
| 19 Nov. 2019 |
ETH
2 - 1
CIV
15%
23%
63%
|
57 | 85 | 28 | +2 |
Matches
Madagascar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 2020 |
MDG
1 - 1
CIV
17%
24%
60%
|
61 | 84 | 23 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2020 |
CIV
2 - 1
MDG
77%
17%
6%
|
61 | 84 | 23 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2020 |
MDG
1 - 2
BFA
29%
28%
44%
|
62 | 74 | 12 | -1 |
| 19 Nov. 2019 |
NER
2 - 6
MDG
39%
26%
35%
|
61 | 60 | 1 | +1 |
| 16 Nov. 2019 |
MDG
1 - 0
ETH
42%
25%
33%
|
60 | 58 | 2 | +1 |