Eritrea vs Zambia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
6.1%
Win probability
0.62
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
0.1%
+3
0.2%
2-0
0.7%
3-1
0.4%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.2%
1-0
2.2%
2-1
1.9%
3-2
0.5%
4-3
0.1%
+1
4.7%
12.7%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
6%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
12.7%
81.2%
Win probability
2.7
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.5%
0-2
13.2%
1-3
7.3%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
22.3%
0-3
11.9%
1-4
5%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
17.8%
0-4
8%
1-5
2.7%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
11.1%
0-5
4.3%
1-6
1.2%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
5.7%
0-6
2%
1-7
0.5%
2-8
0%
-6
2.5%
0-7
0.8%
1-8
0.2%
2-9
0%
-7
0.9%
0-8
0.3%
1-9
0%
-8
0.3%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+35%
-15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Eritrea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May. 2025 |
ERI
0 - 1
NIG
10%
17%
73%
|
10 | 58 | 48 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2025 |
ERI
0 - 0
NIG
10%
16%
74%
|
9 | 58 | 49 | +1 |
| 10 Sep. 2019 |
NAM
2 - 0
ERI
73%
18%
9%
|
33 | 66 | 33 | -24 |
| 04 Sep. 2019 |
ERI
1 - 2
NAM
7%
14%
79%
|
33 | 66 | 33 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2015 |
BOT
3 - 1
ERI
76%
17%
7%
|
34 | 63 | 29 | -1 |
Matches
Zambia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 2025 |
ZAM
1 - 2
ANG
41%
27%
32%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2025 |
COD
2 - 0
ZAM
50%
25%
26%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | -1 |
| 11 Jun. 2025 |
BOT
3 - 3
ZAM
20%
25%
55%
|
72 | 61 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2025 |
ZAM
0 - 1
COM
68%
19%
13%
|
73 | 59 | 14 | -1 |
| 25 Mar. 2025 |
RUS
5 - 0
ZAM
77%
15%
8%
|
73 | 88 | 15 | 0 |