Eritrea vs Ethiopia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
8.2%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1%
3-1
0.6%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
1.7%
1-0
2.6%
2-1
2.5%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
6%
14.3%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
14.3%
77.5%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
21.4%
0-2
12%
1-3
7.7%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.8%
0-3
10.5%
1-4
5%
2-5
1%
3-6
0.1%
-3
16.5%
0-4
6.8%
1-5
2.6%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
9.9%
0-5
3.6%
1-6
1.1%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
4.9%
0-6
1.5%
1-7
0.4%
2-8
0.1%
-6
2%
0-7
0.6%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.7%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0%
-8
0.2%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Eritrea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2019 |
NAM
2 - 0
ERI
73%
18%
9%
|
33 | 66 | 33 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2019 |
ERI
1 - 2
NAM
7%
14%
79%
|
33 | 66 | 33 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2015 |
BOT
3 - 1
ERI
76%
17%
7%
|
34 | 63 | 29 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 2015 |
ERI
0 - 2
BOT
11%
21%
68%
|
34 | 63 | 29 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2013 |
SDN
3 - 0
ERI
84%
12%
5%
|
35 | 63 | 28 | -1 |
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 2024 |
ETH
0 - 3
GUI
20%
23%
58%
|
59 | 74 | 15 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2024 |
GUI
4 - 1
ETH
72%
18%
10%
|
60 | 74 | 14 | -1 |
| 09 Sep. 2024 |
ETH
0 - 2
COD
21%
23%
56%
|
60 | 75 | 15 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2024 |
TAN
0 - 0
ETH
46%
26%
29%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 2024 |
DJI
1 - 1
ETH
11%
17%
72%
|
60 | 34 | 26 | 0 |