Conmebol Sudamericana . Quarter-finals
Global 2-4
Bahía vs Defensa y Justicia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.2%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
4%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.6%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.5%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.6%
27%
Draw
0-0
8.9%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27%
27.8%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.5%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7.4%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bahía
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Dec. 2020 |
BAH
0 - 2
CEA
44%
27%
30%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2020 |
CAU
0 - 0
BAH
42%
28%
30%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2020 |
BAH
1 - 3
SAO
32%
26%
43%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2020 |
BAH
1 - 0
CAU
48%
26%
26%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 2020 |
BRA
4 - 0
BAH
38%
27%
35%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Defensa y Justicia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Dec. 2020 |
IND
1 - 0
DYJ
44%
27%
30%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2020 |
VAS
0 - 1
DYJ
40%
28%
32%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2020 |
DYJ
2 - 3
CCS
67%
20%
13%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2020 |
DYJ
1 - 1
VAS
54%
25%
21%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | -1 |
| 21 Nov. 2020 |
COL
2 - 0
DYJ
38%
28%
34%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |