Derby County vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.9%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.5%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.5%
22.6%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.3%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan. 2001 |
MID
4 - 0
DER
54%
24%
23%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2001 |
DER
3 - 2
WBA
65%
21%
14%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | +1 |
| 01 Jan. 2001 |
DER
1 - 0
EVE
46%
26%
29%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2000 |
SOU
1 - 0
DER
54%
23%
23%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2000 |
MAC
0 - 0
DER
47%
25%
29%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan. 2001 |
MAC
0 - 4
LEE
35%
27%
39%
|
74 | 86 | 12 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2001 |
MAC
3 - 2
BIR
54%
23%
23%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | +1 |
| 01 Jan. 2001 |
COV
1 - 1
MAC
55%
23%
22%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2000 |
MAC
1 - 4
CHA
47%
24%
29%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 2000 |
MAC
0 - 0
DER
47%
25%
29%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |