Derby County vs Brentford analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
17.5%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.7%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
4%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
4.4%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
12.3%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
8.8%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
24.4%
58.1%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
0-1
14.5%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26.1%
0-2
12%
1-3
5.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
18%
0-3
6.6%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
9%
0-4
2.7%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.5%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar. 2021 |
DER
0 - 1
MIL
38%
28%
33%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2021 |
BAR
0 - 0
DER
56%
24%
20%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2021 |
COV
1 - 0
DER
35%
28%
38%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | -1 |
| 02 Mar. 2021 |
CAR
4 - 0
DER
57%
24%
20%
|
68 | 73 | 5 | -1 |
| 26 Feb. 2021 |
DER
1 - 1
NTT
41%
28%
31%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Brentford
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 2021 |
BBU
0 - 1
BRE
24%
25%
51%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2021 |
NOR
1 - 0
BRE
38%
26%
36%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | -1 |
| 27 Feb. 2021 |
BRE
2 - 1
STO
65%
21%
14%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | +1 |
| 24 Feb. 2021 |
BRE
3 - 0
SHW
72%
18%
11%
|
79 | 64 | 15 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2021 |
COV
2 - 0
BRE
15%
23%
62%
|
80 | 64 | 16 | -1 |