Vargas Torres vs 9 de Octubre analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
23.8%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.5%
2-0
4%
3-1
1.6%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.9%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
16%
27.7%
Draw
0-0
10.8%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
27.7%
48.5%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
14.7%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
-1
25.2%
0-2
10%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
14.6%
0-3
4.6%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
6.1%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
5º
10º
9º
29
1º
8º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
31 | 38 |
1º
|
24.5% | |
|
3º
|
30 | 37 |
2º
|
28% | |
|
|
4º
|
29 | 36 |
3º
|
22% | |
|
1º
|
31 | 36 |
4º
|
19% | |
|
7º
|
25 | 32 |
5º
|
29% | |
|
5º
|
28 | 32 |
6º
|
25.5% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 30 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
6º
|
25 | 29 |
8º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
24 | 28 |
9º
|
44% | |
|
10º
|
19 | 23 |
10º
|
77% | |
|
11º
|
12 | 19 |
11º
|
56% | |
|
12º
|
12 | 16 |
12º
|
68% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
14.5% | 98.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
85.5% | 1.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vargas Torres
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 2025 |
IMB
0 - 0
CSV
63%
22%
15%
|
67 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2025 |
CSV
1 - 1
LFC
40%
29%
30%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2025 |
JUL
1 - 1
CSV
24%
26%
50%
|
66 | 20 | 46 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2025 |
CSV
0 - 0
CHA
43%
28%
29%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2025 |
CAV
2 - 1
CSV
22%
26%
52%
|
66 | 16 | 50 | 0 |
Matches
9 de Octubre
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 2025 |
OCT
1 - 2
CFC
48%
26%
26%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2025 |
GUA
1 - 0
OCT
33%
28%
39%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2025 |
RIV
0 - 1
OCT
54%
24%
21%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | +1 |
| 03 Apr. 2025 |
OCT
2 - 1
IMB
45%
26%
29%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2025 |
LFC
1 - 1
OCT
29%
28%
43%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | 0 |