Copa Ecuador . Semi-finals
Global 5-1
Independiente del Valle vs CD El Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.1%
Win probability
1.98
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.3%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.5%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
20.8%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.8%
15.1%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Independiente del Valle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug. 2022 |
IVT
2 - 0
GUA
67%
20%
13%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2022 |
IVT
4 - 1
TAC
70%
19%
11%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2022 |
ORE
1 - 2
IVT
28%
27%
45%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2022 |
TAC
0 - 1
IVT
33%
24%
43%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2022 |
IVT
1 - 1
BSC
54%
25%
22%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
CD El Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2022 |
NAC
0 - 0
PQU
74%
18%
9%
|
72 | 58 | 14 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2022 |
GUA
0 - 1
NAC
27%
29%
43%
|
72 | 60 | 12 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2022 |
NAC
3 - 1
DEL
39%
24%
37%
|
70 | 77 | 7 | +2 |
| 31 Jul. 2022 |
CHA
0 - 2
NAC
40%
29%
31%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2022 |
NAC
2 - 1
INJ
64%
22%
15%
|
69 | 61 | 8 | +1 |