4ª Catalana Playoffs Ascenso Semi-finals
First-leg 5-3
Congrés Club A vs Albirrojita de Catalunya B analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.7%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.1%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.1%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
16.4%
1-0
5%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
5.2%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.8%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
2.2%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.7%
24.6%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
13.6%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Congrés Club A
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May. 2025 |
ACA
3 - 5
CCE
46%
21%
33%
|
24 | 23 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2025 |
CCE
5 - 1
CCF
84%
10%
6%
|
23 | 10 | 13 | +1 |
| 11 May. 2025 |
AAA
0 - 3
CCE
8%
13%
79%
|
23 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2025 |
CCE
11 - 0
ESC
83%
11%
6%
|
22 | 7 | 15 | +1 |
| 26 Apr. 2025 |
ACA
3 - 1
CCE
41%
21%
38%
|
22 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Albirrojita de Catalunya B
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May. 2025 |
ACA
3 - 5
CCE
46%
21%
33%
|
23 | 24 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2025 |
UNI
2 - 1
ACA
28%
20%
53%
|
24 | 16 | 8 | -1 |
| 10 May. 2025 |
ACA
5 - 1
PBC
76%
14%
10%
|
23 | 15 | 8 | +1 |
| 04 May. 2025 |
GOR
1 - 2
ACA
32%
20%
47%
|
23 | 17 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2025 |
ACA
3 - 1
CCE
41%
21%
38%
|
21 | 22 | 1 | +2 |