Comercial vs Penapolense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.7%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.8%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11%
2-0
12.8%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.8%
1-0
13.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.8%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
21.8%
14.5%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.4%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-41%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 2021 |
VOT
2 - 2
COM
37%
27%
36%
|
53 | 49 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2021 |
COM
0 - 2
NOR
49%
26%
25%
|
54 | 52 | 2 | -1 |
| 10 Mar. 2021 |
COM
0 - 0
OLI
68%
20%
12%
|
55 | 42 | 13 | -1 |
| 06 Mar. 2021 |
PRI
0 - 2
COM
20%
27%
53%
|
54 | 45 | 9 | +1 |
| 09 Dec. 2020 |
XVD
1 - 0
COM
59%
23%
18%
|
55 | 61 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Penapolense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 2021 |
PEN
0 - 3
OLI
45%
25%
30%
|
44 | 42 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2021 |
MAR
2 - 0
PEN
64%
21%
16%
|
45 | 52 | 7 | -1 |
| 10 Mar. 2021 |
PEN
1 - 1
RIO
48%
25%
28%
|
45 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2021 |
BAR
2 - 0
PEN
45%
24%
31%
|
46 | 47 | 1 | -1 |
| 30 Aug. 2020 |
XVD
2 - 1
PEN
68%
20%
12%
|
46 | 59 | 13 | 0 |