Paulista A3 Fase Final. Final
Global 3-4
Comercial vs Noroeste analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.6%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.1%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.9%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
27.7%
Draw
0-0
9.7%
1-1
13%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.7%
28.7%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
18.1%
0-2
5%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-28%
+14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May. 2022 |
NOR
2 - 1
COM
39%
28%
34%
|
55 | 54 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2022 |
COM
0 - 0
VOT
55%
25%
21%
|
55 | 50 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2022 |
VOT
1 - 1
COM
32%
27%
41%
|
55 | 49 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2022 |
COM
1 - 0
USA
68%
20%
12%
|
55 | 42 | 13 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2022 |
VOT
0 - 1
COM
33%
27%
40%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Noroeste
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May. 2022 |
NOR
2 - 1
COM
39%
28%
34%
|
54 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2022 |
NOR
2 - 0
BER
40%
27%
33%
|
52 | 52 | 0 | +2 |
| 30 Apr. 2022 |
BER
2 - 0
NOR
39%
28%
33%
|
54 | 51 | 3 | -2 |
| 23 Apr. 2022 |
NOR
2 - 0
CAP
47%
26%
27%
|
53 | 49 | 4 | +1 |
| 20 Apr. 2022 |
BER
2 - 2
NOR
42%
28%
30%
|
53 | 51 | 2 | 0 |