Comercial MS vs Ceilândia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.3%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.2%
2-0
3%
3-1
1.4%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.6%
1-0
7%
2-1
4.9%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
13.2%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
8.3%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.5%
56.2%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
0-1
13.6%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.6%
0-2
11.2%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17.4%
0-3
6.1%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
8.6%
0-4
2.5%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.3%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial MS
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May. 2017 |
ANA
1 - 1
COM
63%
22%
15%
|
38 | 47 | 9 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2017 |
COM
2 - 0
SIN
19%
25%
57%
|
37 | 51 | 14 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2017 |
COM
2 - 3
7DE
29%
27%
44%
|
39 | 47 | 8 | -2 |
| 02 Apr. 2017 |
7DE
1 - 0
COM
60%
22%
18%
|
39 | 47 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2017 |
COS
1 - 1
COM
56%
23%
21%
|
39 | 44 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Ceilândia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2017 |
SIN
1 - 1
CEI
39%
27%
34%
|
51 | 49 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2017 |
CEI
1 - 0
ANA
49%
27%
25%
|
51 | 49 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2017 |
BRA
3 - 2
CEI
45%
26%
29%
|
53 | 55 | 2 | -2 |
| 29 Apr. 2017 |
CEI
2 - 2
BRA
38%
27%
35%
|
53 | 55 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2017 |
CEI
2 - 1
PAR
54%
24%
22%
|
53 | 44 | 9 | 0 |