FA Cup . 1/32

Chorley vs Derby County analysis

Chorley Derby County
41 ELO 66
-15.2% Tilt 0.5%
3636º General ELO ranking 620º
127º Country ELO ranking 39º
ELO win probability
6.4%
Chorley
15.2%
Draw
78.3%
Derby County

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
6.4%
Win probability
Chorley
0.51
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.2%
2-0
0.8%
3-1
0.3%
4-2
<0%
+2
1.1%
1-0
3%
2-1
1.8%
3-2
0.3%
4-3
<0%
+1
5.1%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
7%
2-2
2%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
15.2%
78.3%
Win probability
Derby County
2.32
Expected goals
0-1
13.8%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
-1
23.6%
0-2
15.9%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
23.2%
0-3
12.3%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
16.4%
0-4
7.1%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.2%
-4
9%
0-5
3.3%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
4%
0-6
1.3%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.5%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.5%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%

ELO progression

Chorley
Derby County
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Chorley
Chorley
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
02 Jan. 2021
FYL
Fylde
4 - 0
Chorley
CHO
63%
20%
17%
42 48 6 0
28 Dec. 2020
CHE
Chester
1 - 2
Chorley
CHO
54%
22%
24%
42 43 1 0
26 Dec. 2020
CHO
Chorley
3 - 1
Fylde
FYL
17%
22%
61%
39 49 10 +3
15 Dec. 2020
GUI
Guiseley
2 - 0
Chorley
CHO
45%
24%
32%
42 41 1 -3
12 Dec. 2020
ALF
Alfreton Town
1 - 1
Chorley
CHO
27%
24%
49%
42 33 9 0

Matches

Derby County
Derby County
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
01 Jan. 2021
SHW
Sheffield Wednesday
1 - 0
Derby County
DER
35%
28%
37%
66 64 2 0
29 Dec. 2020
BIR
Birmingham City
0 - 4
Derby County
DER
38%
26%
35%
65 61 4 +1
26 Dec. 2020
DER
Derby County
0 - 1
Preston North End
PNE
39%
27%
34%
66 67 1 -1
16 Dec. 2020
DER
Derby County
2 - 0
Swansea City
SWA
26%
26%
48%
65 74 9 +1
12 Dec. 2020
DER
Derby County
0 - 0
Stoke City
STO
32%
28%
40%
64 72 8 +1
X