noscript image

Serie D. Group I, Matchday 13

Castrovillari vs Gelbison analysis

Castrovillari Gelbison
19 ELO 12
9% Tilt 47%
7386º General ELO ranking 8781º
286º Country ELO ranking 311º
ELO win probability
40%
Castrovillari
24.7%
Draw
35.2%
Gelbison

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40%
Win probability
Castrovillari
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.1%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.9%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.6%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
35.2%
Win probability
Gelbison
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
7.7%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.1%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
10.3%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Castrovillari
+20%
+54%
Gelbison

Basic stats

0
1
GF
1
0
GC
19
12
ELO
1.5
1.4
EXP
Key
GF
Goals for
GC
Goals against
ELO
Team's ELO rating
EXP
Expected goals for the team

Points and table prediction

Castrovillari
Their league position
Gelbison
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
15º
11º
64
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
Current table Final expectations
PK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Messina
74
74
100%
Città di Messina
72
72
100%
Gelbison
64
64
100%
San Luca
58
58
100%
Acireale
57
57
100%
Dattilo
52
52
100%
Rotonda
49
49
100%
Biancavilla
47
47
100%
Santa Maria Cilento
45
45
100%
Licata
10º
43
43
10º
100%
Castrovillari
11º
41
41
11º
100%
A.S.D. Paternò 1908
12º
39
39
12º
50%
Cittanovese
13º
39
39
13º
50%
Cittá Di Sant'Agata
14º
36
36
14º
50%
Troina
15º
36
36
15º
50%
Rende
16º
34
34
16º
100%
Marina di Ragusa
17º
33
33
17º
100%
Roccella
18º
20
20
18º
100%
Expected probabilities
Castrovillari
Gelbison
Champion
0% 0%
Promotion playoffs
0% 100%
Mid-table
100% 0%
Relegation playoffs
0% 0%
Relegation
0% 0%

ELO progression

Gelbison
GEL
Castrovillari
USC
Acireale
ACI
Città di Messina
CIT
Roccella
ROC
Rotonda
ROT
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Castrovillari
Castrovillari
1%
X%
2%
ELO USC ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
17 Feb. 2021
MDR
Marina di Ragusa
2 - 1
Castrovillari
USC
45%
27%
28%
253 273 20 0
23 Dec. 2020
USC
Castrovillari
1 - 0
Biancavilla
BIA
46%
27%
27%
253 289 -36 0
20 Dec. 2020
MES
Messina
1 - 0
Castrovillari
USC
49%
26%
25%
253 362 109 0
13 Dec. 2020
USC
Castrovillari
1 - 1
Cittá Di Sant'Agata
CSA
46%
27%
27%
253 292 -39 0
04 Nov. 2020
LUC
San Luca
1 - 0
Castrovillari
USC
47%
27%
26%
255 297 42 -1

Matches

Gelbison
Gelbison
1%
X%
2%
ELO GEL ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
06 Dec. 2020
MES
Messina
2 - 2
Gelbison
GEL
51%
26%
23%
180 362 182 0
06 Jan. 2021
CCI
Cittanovese
1 - 5
Gelbison
GEL
47%
27%
26%
180 263 83 0
23 Dec. 2020
GEL
Gelbison
3 - 2
Acireale
ACI
41%
28%
31%
180 318 -138 0
20 Dec. 2020
MDR
Marina di Ragusa
2 - 2
Gelbison
GEL
47%
27%
26%
180 273 93 0
13 Dec. 2020
GEL
Gelbison
1 - 1
Biancavilla
BIA
44%
27%
29%
180 289 -109 0