Castro vs UM Escobedo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
11%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.4%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.3%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
3.1%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
8.1%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.5%
70.5%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
0-1
12.4%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
13.3%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
21.4%
0-3
9.5%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
13.7%
0-4
5.1%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
6.8%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.8%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+83%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 2012 |
MER
2 - 0
CAS
64%
21%
15%
|
11 | 15 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2012 |
CAS
0 - 2
CAY
12%
21%
67%
|
12 | 28 | 16 | -1 |
| 16 Sep. 2012 |
CUL
1 - 1
CAS
77%
16%
7%
|
12 | 22 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2012 |
CAS
0 - 2
LAR
9%
17%
74%
|
12 | 31 | 19 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2012 |
RAY
1 - 0
CAS
84%
12%
5%
|
12 | 24 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
UM Escobedo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep. 2012 |
ESC
1 - 2
SAN
65%
20%
15%
|
23 | 19 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2012 |
MAR
2 - 1
ESC
36%
25%
39%
|
24 | 22 | 2 | -1 |
| 15 Sep. 2012 |
ESC
0 - 2
SIE
53%
23%
25%
|
25 | 24 | 1 | -1 |
| 09 Sep. 2012 |
PON
1 - 1
ESC
23%
23%
54%
|
25 | 18 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2012 |
ESC
2 - 2
SAN
69%
18%
13%
|
25 | 20 | 5 | 0 |