Castro vs Sámano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
28.5%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.7%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.7%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
2.8%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.9%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
7%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
16.9%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.8%
46.7%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
22.6%
0-2
7.8%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
14.2%
0-3
4.2%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.6%
0-4
1.7%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+97%
+51%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
30
7º
16º
12º
40
6º
14º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
57 | 57 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
54 | 57 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
53 | 53 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
52 | 52 |
4º
|
44% | |
|
5º
|
49 | 52 |
5º
|
44% | |
|
6º
|
46 | 47 |
6º
|
88.5% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
58% | |
|
|
8º
|
40 | 43 |
8º
|
50.5% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 39 |
9º
|
81% | |
|
10º
|
33 | 34 |
10º
|
91.5% | |
|
11º
|
31 | 32 |
11º
|
91.5% | |
|
|
12º
|
30 | 30 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
29 | 29 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
26 | 26 |
14º
|
62% | |
|
16º
|
25 | 25 |
15º
|
62% | |
|
15º
|
25 | 25 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Castro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
SDT
0 - 1
CAS
61%
20%
18%
|
17 | 22 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2022 |
CAS
2 - 2
GAM
37%
25%
38%
|
17 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
TEX
0 - 0
CAS
44%
25%
31%
|
17 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2022 |
CAS
0 - 2
ESC
18%
23%
60%
|
18 | 28 | 10 | -1 |
| 30 Apr. 2022 |
SEL
1 - 1
CAS
24%
24%
52%
|
18 | 15 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Sámano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
SAM
2 - 1
CAR
53%
24%
24%
|
21 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
CAY
2 - 2
SAM
71%
18%
11%
|
21 | 33 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
SAM
0 - 2
MAR
29%
24%
47%
|
22 | 28 | 6 | -1 |
| 10 Sep. 2022 |
REV
1 - 1
SAM
39%
24%
37%
|
22 | 19 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2022 |
ESC
0 - 0
SAM
61%
22%
18%
|
22 | 28 | 6 | 0 |