Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.2%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.5%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.8%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.6%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.1%
26.8%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.4%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.2%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-33%
-12%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
1º
6º
4º
25
3º
8º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
60 | 60 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 44 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
|
4º
|
41 | 41 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 40 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 33 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 27 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
|
8º
|
25 | 25 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 24 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
22 | 22 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 20 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 1 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cardiff MU
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
NEW
0 - 1
CAR
47%
26%
27%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2022 |
AAF
0 - 3
CAR
9%
15%
76%
|
63 | 30 | 33 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
CON
2 - 0
CAR
47%
28%
25%
|
64 | 67 | 3 | -1 |
| 08 Oct. 2022 |
PLL
2 - 1
CAR
7%
13%
80%
|
64 | 17 | 47 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
CAR
2 - 1
ABE
61%
22%
16%
|
64 | 54 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct. 2022 |
TNS
3 - 0
CAE
62%
20%
18%
|
61 | 67 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2022 |
CAE
2 - 1
ABE
62%
21%
17%
|
60 | 54 | 6 | +1 |
| 14 Oct. 2022 |
CAE
2 - 0
FLI
51%
24%
25%
|
59 | 58 | 1 | +1 |
| 07 Oct. 2022 |
FMC
0 - 4
CAE
3%
9%
88%
|
59 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
PON
3 - 1
CAE
21%
23%
56%
|
60 | 46 | 14 | -1 |