Caernarfon Town FC vs Connah's Quay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.2%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.2%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.9%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
32.5%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
9%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.9%
0-2
5.4%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+12%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
3º
8º
8º
44
2º
12º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
60 | 60 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
44 | 44 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 41 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 40 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 33 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 27 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
|
8º
|
25 | 25 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 24 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
22 | 22 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 20 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
0 | 1 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 2022 |
CLY
1 - 0
CAE
15%
19%
67%
|
61 | 46 | 15 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2022 |
CAE
1 - 4
BAL
43%
23%
35%
|
63 | 66 | 3 | -2 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
CAE
2 - 1
HAV
59%
21%
20%
|
62 | 56 | 6 | +1 |
| 02 Sep. 2022 |
CAE
3 - 1
AIR
74%
16%
10%
|
62 | 48 | 14 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2022 |
NEW
2 - 1
CAE
43%
25%
32%
|
62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Connah's Quay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 2022 |
CON
1 - 0
PON
64%
23%
13%
|
67 | 46 | 21 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2022 |
CON
1 - 0
HOL
76%
16%
8%
|
66 | 46 | 20 | +1 |
| 16 Sep. 2022 |
ABE
2 - 1
CON
26%
27%
48%
|
67 | 53 | 14 | -1 |
| 03 Sep. 2022 |
CON
2 - 0
PEN
51%
26%
24%
|
67 | 60 | 7 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2022 |
CON
1 - 0
BAL
40%
27%
33%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |