African WC Qual. 1st and 2nd Round Final
Global 2-1
Cape Verde vs Kenya analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
66.2%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.5%
3-0
8.5%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
12%
2-0
13.1%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.5%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
20.7%
13.1%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.5%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Cape Verde
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 2015 |
KEN
1 - 0
CPV
22%
26%
52%
|
72 | 59 | 13 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2015 |
LBY
1 - 2
CPV
44%
27%
29%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | +1 |
| 13 Jun. 2015 |
CPV
7 - 1
STP
85%
11%
4%
|
71 | 41 | 30 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2015 |
POR
0 - 2
CPV
87%
10%
3%
|
69 | 92 | 23 | +2 |
| 26 Jan. 2015 |
CPV
0 - 0
ZAM
33%
26%
42%
|
69 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Kenya
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 2015 |
KEN
1 - 0
CPV
22%
26%
52%
|
59 | 72 | 13 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2015 |
KEN
0 - 0
MUS
60%
23%
17%
|
60 | 47 | 13 | -1 |
| 07 Oct. 2015 |
MUS
2 - 5
KEN
26%
28%
47%
|
59 | 47 | 12 | +1 |
| 06 Sep. 2015 |
KEN
1 - 2
ZAM
18%
24%
58%
|
60 | 76 | 16 | -1 |
| 04 Jul. 2015 |
KEN
0 - 0
ETH
40%
27%
34%
|
60 | 59 | 1 | 0 |