Conmebol Sudamericana . 1/16
Global 5-2
Bolívar vs Aurora analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.2%
Win probability
2.51
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.4%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.4%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.4%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.4%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.4%
15.4%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.8%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bolívar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2004 |
BOL
1 - 1
STR
68%
18%
14%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2004 |
AUR
1 - 2
BOL
51%
24%
26%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | +1 |
| 03 Aug. 2004 |
SAN
0 - 0
BOL
46%
25%
29%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | -1 |
| 01 Aug. 2004 |
BOL
2 - 2
LAP
69%
17%
14%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2004 |
STR
3 - 0
BOL
31%
26%
42%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | -5 |
Matches
Aurora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2004 |
AUR
0 - 2
UNI
54%
23%
22%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2004 |
AUR
1 - 2
BOL
51%
24%
26%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | -1 |
| 03 Aug. 2004 |
OPE
4 - 0
AUR
60%
20%
20%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | -1 |
| 01 Aug. 2004 |
AUR
2 - 1
SAC
67%
20%
14%
|
70 | 61 | 9 | +1 |
| 25 Jul. 2004 |
BLO
4 - 2
AUR
33%
26%
41%
|
71 | 61 | 10 | -1 |