Birmingham City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.4%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.2%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
35.2%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.9%
0-2
6%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.1%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Birmingham City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec. 2020 |
NTT
0 - 0
BIR
53%
26%
21%
|
60 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2020 |
BIR
1 - 4
MID
33%
27%
40%
|
61 | 69 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Dec. 2020 |
CAR
3 - 2
BIR
66%
22%
13%
|
62 | 72 | 10 | -1 |
| 12 Dec. 2020 |
BIR
0 - 1
WAT
20%
27%
53%
|
62 | 79 | 17 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2020 |
REA
1 - 2
BIR
65%
22%
14%
|
61 | 69 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec. 2020 |
DER
0 - 1
PNE
39%
27%
34%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2020 |
DER
2 - 0
SWA
26%
26%
48%
|
65 | 74 | 9 | +1 |
| 12 Dec. 2020 |
DER
0 - 0
STO
32%
28%
40%
|
64 | 72 | 8 | +1 |
| 09 Dec. 2020 |
BRE
0 - 0
DER
70%
19%
11%
|
64 | 78 | 14 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 2020 |
MIL
0 - 1
DER
52%
25%
23%
|
63 | 69 | 6 | +1 |