Benfica vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.3%
Win probability
2.65
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.2%
5-0
3.9%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.2%
4-0
7.4%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.5%
3-0
11.1%
4-1
5%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.1%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21%
13.6%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
6.4%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
13.6%
7.2%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.4%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.4%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 2019 |
SLB
2 - 1
SCP
51%
22%
27%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2019 |
SCP
2 - 4
SLB
44%
25%
30%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2019 |
SLB
5 - 1
BOA
81%
13%
6%
|
84 | 69 | 15 | +1 |
| 22 Jan. 2019 |
SLB
1 - 3
FCP
38%
26%
36%
|
85 | 89 | 4 | -1 |
| 18 Jan. 2019 |
VIT
0 - 1
SLB
25%
25%
51%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2019 |
NAC
0 - 0
VST
41%
26%
33%
|
68 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2019 |
MOR
2 - 1
NAC
44%
25%
31%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2019 |
NAC
0 - 3
SPB
14%
22%
64%
|
69 | 86 | 17 | -1 |
| 13 Jan. 2019 |
NAC
0 - 1
BEL
38%
29%
34%
|
69 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2019 |
FCP
3 - 1
NAC
82%
13%
5%
|
69 | 89 | 20 | 0 |