Europa League . Quarter-finals
Global 3-0
Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.3%
Win probability
2.3
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.4%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.7%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.5%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.5%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
17.2%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.2%
10.5%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
7.6%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2014 |
SLB
4 - 0
RIO
78%
15%
7%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2014 |
AZA
0 - 1
SLB
24%
24%
52%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2014 |
SPB
0 - 1
SLB
37%
25%
38%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2014 |
FCP
1 - 0
SLB
45%
25%
30%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2014 |
SLB
3 - 0
ACA
80%
14%
6%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 2014 |
RJC
2 - 2
AZA
21%
24%
55%
|
80 | 64 | 16 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2014 |
AZA
0 - 1
SLB
24%
24%
52%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2014 |
BVO
0 - 0
AZA
28%
26%
46%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2014 |
AZA
0 - 1
AJA
25%
23%
52%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2014 |
AZA
2 - 1
ZWO
63%
21%
16%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |