Basel vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
80.6%
Win probability
2.53
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
2%
5-0
4%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5%
4-0
7.9%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.4%
3-0
12.5%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.4%
2-0
14.9%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.9%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
8%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.8%
13.5%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
2.2%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
13.5%
5.9%
Win probability
0.54
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
1.7%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
4.6%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb. 2010 |
NEX
1 - 3
BAS
29%
23%
47%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2010 |
BAS
4 - 0
YOB
50%
23%
28%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2009 |
BAS
2 - 3
FUL
51%
23%
26%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 2009 |
BAS
3 - 1
BIE
82%
13%
6%
|
85 | 61 | 24 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2009 |
BAS
3 - 2
BEL
77%
15%
8%
|
85 | 68 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 2010 |
FCA
6 - 3
BEL
35%
26%
39%
|
64 | 68 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2009 |
FCL
6 - 0
FCA
66%
21%
14%
|
65 | 75 | 10 | -1 |
| 29 Nov. 2009 |
ZUR
2 - 0
FCA
72%
18%
11%
|
65 | 83 | 18 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 2009 |
FCA
0 - 2
STG
27%
26%
47%
|
66 | 74 | 8 | -1 |
| 01 Nov. 2009 |
NEX
3 - 3
FCA
70%
19%
12%
|
65 | 77 | 12 | +1 |