Aston Villa vs Newcastle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.3%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.5%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.6%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
20%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.1%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aston Villa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct. 1986 |
WAT
4 - 2
ASV
61%
21%
18%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 1986 |
ASV
3 - 1
SOU
45%
26%
30%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1986 |
COV
0 - 1
ASV
53%
23%
24%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1986 |
LIV
3 - 3
ASV
80%
13%
7%
|
79 | 91 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1986 |
ASV
1 - 4
NOR
52%
25%
24%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct. 1986 |
NEW
1 - 2
ARS
44%
25%
31%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 1986 |
NEW
3 - 1
MAC
68%
20%
13%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 Oct. 1986 |
SOU
4 - 1
NEW
65%
20%
15%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | -1 |
| 27 Sep. 1986 |
NOR
2 - 0
NEW
62%
21%
17%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | -1 |
| 20 Sep. 1986 |
NEW
1 - 0
WIM
69%
16%
14%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | +1 |