Varese vs Modena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.4%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.9%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.4%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.7%
19.9%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.3%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug. 2013 |
CES
1 - 0
VAR
39%
28%
33%
|
69 | 64 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2013 |
JUS
1 - 1
VAR
41%
25%
34%
|
69 | 63 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2013 |
VAR
1 - 0
VIC
65%
20%
15%
|
69 | 59 | 10 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2013 |
VAR
2 - 2
CAT
30%
26%
44%
|
69 | 81 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2013 |
BRE
2 - 0
VAR
47%
27%
26%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2013 |
MOD
1 - 1
PAL
26%
28%
46%
|
63 | 77 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2013 |
MOD
0 - 1
FRO
65%
20%
15%
|
65 | 54 | 11 | -2 |
| 18 May. 2013 |
SPE
1 - 1
MOD
47%
26%
28%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2013 |
MOD
0 - 1
VIC
63%
22%
15%
|
65 | 58 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2013 |
CRO
2 - 1
MOD
46%
26%
28%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | -1 |